Unrealized Gains, Real Consequences: The Netherlands’ 36% Capital Reform and Its Implications for Digital Assets

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A structural shift in asset taxation advances through Parliament(Netherlands), raising questions about capital mobility, liquidity risk, and Europe’s competitive posture

By CoinEpigraph Editorial Desk | February 23, 2026

The Dutch House of Representatives has advanced legislation that would impose a 36% tax on savings, equities, and cryptocurrencies — including unrealized gains — marking one of the most aggressive proposed capital taxation regimes in Europe.

The bill, part of a broader Box 3 reform aimed at taxing actual returns rather than assumed yields, passed the lower chamber and now awaits approval from the Senate. If enacted, the measure is expected to take effect January 1, 2028.

At first glance, this appears to be a national fiscal recalibration. At second glance, it is a structural test of how mark-to-market taxation alters capital allocation behavior in liquid asset classes — including digital assets.

From Notional Returns to Actual Gains

The Netherlands’ existing Box 3 framework has historically taxed assumed returns on savings and investments rather than realized income. The reform seeks to align taxation with actual economic gain.

The complexity lies in the inclusion of unrealized gains.

Under the proposal, investors could owe tax on appreciation even if assets are not sold. In periods of rising markets, this increases tax predictability for the state. In volatile markets, it introduces liquidity stress for holders.

For crypto and growth equities — where valuation swings can be pronounced — the distinction between realized and unrealized becomes economically meaningful.

Liquidity and Forced Selling Dynamics

Taxing unrealized gains introduces a structural incentive shift.

If a portfolio appreciates significantly but generates no cash flow, the investor must source liquidity elsewhere to meet tax obligations. This can:

• Encourage partial liquidation of appreciated assets
• Increase turnover in growth equities and digital assets
• Reduce long-duration holding incentives
• Amplify volatility during correction cycles

The tax does not directly target crypto. It captures crypto alongside equities and savings instruments within a broader reform. But digital assets, due to volatility and lower dividend yield characteristics, may feel the behavioral effects more acutely.

Capital Mobility and Jurisdictional Elasticity

The Netherlands is a mature financial jurisdiction with strong institutional credibility. Yet capital in the digital era is increasingly mobile.

Investors weighing after-tax return profiles may compare:

• The Netherlands’ 36% regime
• Germany’s holding-period exemptions for crypto
• France’s flat tax model
• The U.S. realized-gains framework
• The UAE’s absence of capital gains tax

Jurisdictional competition does not operate solely at the margin. It operates at the expected value of after-tax compounding.

The proposal’s 2028 implementation date provides a window for behavioral adjustment. Whether that window leads to structural outflows or normalization depends on investor elasticity.

Growth Capital and Innovation Considerations

Unrealized gains taxation can influence startup ecosystems and early-stage equity ownership.

For founders and early investors holding illiquid shares, mark-to-market valuation without liquidity realization introduces complexity. Although certain carve-outs or differentiated treatment may apply, the broader signal matters.

Crypto-native entrepreneurs, token issuers, and decentralized finance operators already operate within portable frameworks. If unrealized taxation compresses long-term compounding incentives domestically, innovation capital may seek friendlier jurisdictions.

This is not unique to the Netherlands. It is a recurring dynamic in high-tax advanced economies balancing fiscal needs with capital competitiveness.

Fiscal Motivation and Political Optics

The reform emerges within broader European fiscal recalibration pressures.

Post-pandemic balance sheets, demographic aging, and energy transition funding needs have increased revenue sensitivity. Taxing actual returns aligns with equity arguments that wealth accumulation should be captured proportionally.

Politically, unrealized gains taxation appeals to fairness narratives. Economically, it reshapes holding incentives.

The distinction between political rationale and market impact should not be conflated.

Does This Stifle Growth?

The answer depends on three variables:

1. Senate outcome – The bill must still pass the upper chamber.
2. Final design details – Exemptions, thresholds, and treatment of illiquid assets matter.
3. Investor response elasticity – Behavioral shifts determine macro impact.

If capital remains largely domestic and institutional investors adapt, the system may normalize without dramatic outflow.

If high-net-worth and digital asset holders relocate exposure, competitive pressure intensifies.

Markets do not respond to headline rates alone. They respond to expected net compounding pathways.

Implications for Digital Assets

Crypto markets are structurally sensitive to:

• Liquidity timing
• Jurisdictional reporting rules
• Capital mobility
• Mark-to-market valuation volatility

The inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the 36% framework reinforces their classification as mainstream financial assets rather than fringe instruments.

That normalization carries both legitimacy and burden.

Inclusion in the tax base signals maturity. It also signals fiscal integration.

The Structural Question

Unrealized gains taxation tests a fundamental economic principle:

Should taxation occur when wealth accrues, or when liquidity is realized?

For savings accounts, the answer is less contentious. For volatile, non-yielding, growth-oriented assets — including crypto — the answer alters investor calculus.

The Netherlands’ proposal is not yet law. It awaits Senate review. Its implementation timeline extends to 2028. Yet the debate itself is instructive.

Advanced economies are experimenting with how to tax appreciation in a world where asset values move faster than traditional fiscal frameworks.

The consequences will not be confined to the Netherlands.

They will inform the broader European conversation on capital competitiveness in the digital era.

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